2016 Prediction Review

Now that the Super Bowl is over, it seems like as good a time as any to do a prediction review, and do a quick survey of the expert’s prognostications did in 2016.

I make no claims to be great at predicting anything. I am, after all, the guy who let his four-year-old son pick the NCAA tournament this year[footnote]To be fair, he’s not last in his pool[/footnote]. 

ESPN

Roger Goodell’s propaganda arm was mixed on the Pats. Of 42 analysts, 17 had the Patriots getting to the Super Bowl, 15 picked the Steelers, three each picked the Chiefs and Bengals to represent the AFC. On the NFC side, the Packers got 16 votes, the Seahawks 15, and the Cardinals 6. As will be a theme, the Falcons got none.

As to who’d be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, Bristol picked the Seahawks as their favorites, with 11 votes. The Packers were in second with nine votes. The Patriots got six.

For MVP, Tom Brady did get three votes, suspension notwithstanding. Russell Wilson led the way with 12 votes, Aaron Rodgers got 11, and Ben Roethlisberger got 11.

The biggest surprise may have been Tedy Bruschi picking a Steelers-Seahawks Super Bowl. The smallest would have been Merril Hoge picking the Steelers-Packers.

However, the most ridiculous pick belong’s to Michael Smith – former Boston Globe writer, and current host of ESPN SC6. He picked the Jets. Maybe he lost a bet.

Mike Reiss

Mike Reiss covers the Patriots for ESPN, and knows his stuff. He actually nailed the Patriots start to the season at 3-1. He did err on the side of caution with his prediction this year.

“Uncertainty over quarterback Tom Brady’s availability for the first four games (with the NFL’s appeal of his suspension ongoing) sparks a more conservative projection. The stretch from Week 14-16 — in which the Patriots host the Ravens, visit the Broncos and then host the Jets in a span of 13 days — looks like one of the toughest parts of the schedule.”

Fivethirtyeight.com

ESPN’s number crunchers had a real rough year. They punted the election prediction. Then they picked a Denver repeat. They had the Patriots finishing with an average of 11 wins, and gave them the fourth best odds of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl, and the sixth best odds of winning the Super Bowl.

Much like everybody else, they didn’t see the Falcons Super Bowl run coming. They had the Falcons coming up with an average of their simulations.

USA Today

McPaper’s Nate Davis was very high on the Steelers. He predicted the Steelers would finish 12-4 and win the Super Bowl. But Davis did get the teams in the AFC Championship game correct. He also nailed the Broncos missing the playoffs, and had the Packers coming up short in the NFC Championship game. But the really impressive thing was getting five of the six AFC playoff teams AND the matchups correct for the Divisional Playoff games.

“They’ve reached the AFC title game every years since 2011. Despite Tom Brady’s suspension, no reason not to believe that streak won’t continue given the apparent lack of conference powerhouses. Don’t be shocked if a motivated Brady goes undefeated once he’s back.”

AFC playoffs
Wild card: (6) Chiefs def. (3) Raiders; (4) Texans def. (5) Bengals

Divisional: (2) Patriots def. (4) Texans; (1) Steelers def. (6) Chiefs

AFC Championship Game: (1) Steelers def. (2) Patriots

NFC playoffs
Wild card: (3) Cardinals def. (6) Vikings; (5) Seahawks def. (4) Giants

Divisional: (1) Packers def. (5) Seahawks; (3) Cardinals def. (2) Panthers

NFC Championship Game: (3) Cardinals def. (1) Packers

Super Bowl LI: Steelers def. Cardinals

FOX Sports

Pete Schrager’s 10 Bold Predictions

If you’re going to make 10 bold predictions, you’re probably going to have some misses, and Schrager missed on 9 of the 10. The Browns were really bad. This prediction review does give him the benefit of the doubt, in that some of the ones that did. The only one that really blew up were the Buffalo and Osweiler ones.

1. Kirk Cousins will lead the NFL in passing yards – He finished 3rd, so this one was pretty close.
2. The Cincinnati Bengals will win the AFC – Marvin Lewis’s club finished 6-9-1, missing the playoffs.
3. Paxton Lynch will be Denver’s starting QB by Week 6 – Lynch didn’t supplant Trevor Simien, though he did get on the field in week four due to an injury. I’m going to call this one a miss.
4. Carson Wentz will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year – If the season ended week 5, this prediction would have been spot on, as Wentz was the Rookie of the Week in three of the first five weeks of the season. But he tailed off after that, as did the Eagles, and he didn’t finish in the top five.
5. Carson Palmer will be the 2016 NFL Most Valuable Player – Palmer and the Cardinals may have been the most disappointing team in the NFL. “I think Palmer can go for 4,500 yards, 30 touchdown passes and 12 wins this season. That’s MVP-type stuff.” wrote Schrager. Palmer actually came close on the individual numbers, with 4,233 yards and 26 touchdowns – but the Cardinals limped home with only 6 wins.
6.  The Tennessee Titans will make the playoffs – This prediction was pretty close, and if Marcus Mariota doesn’t go down, they probably would have made the playoffs.
7. The Bills will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East – Buffalo started out 4-2, then fell apart, finishing 7-9 and missing the playoffs again.
8. Cleveland will struggle more than people think – This pick actually turned out pretty good.
9. Brock Osweiler will be an absolute stud Year 1 in Houston – As good as the last prediction was, this one was just as bad. Schrager predicted a Pro Bowl season, and Osweiler was benched, and then traded.
10. The Seahawks will win the NFC. Again. And then win Super Bowl XLI – You can’t fault him for not picking the Falcons to win the NFC. Nobody did. I’m not sure how bold a prediction this was.

CBS Sports

The season didn’t play out at all the way their experts predicted. Each of their seven experts had the Carolina Panthers winning the NFC South. Four of them had the Falcons finishing last. None of them saw Atlanta making the playoffs. All of their experts predicted that the Cardinals would get in.

The Steelers were picked by four of their experts to make the Super Bowl. The Bengals got two votes. The Patriots only got one.

Each of them picked the NFC champion to win the Super Bowl.

Pete Prisco aggressively picked the winners of all 267 games. He had the Pats at 13-3, and losing the Super Bowl to the Packers.

Sports Illustrated

There was a lot of love for the Cardinals and Bengals at SI.com. Ben Baskin had an Arizona-Cincinnati Super Bowl.

The Packers led the way with six votes to represent the NFC, with Arizona getting four, and Seattle picking up two…  and no Falcons. On the AFC side, the Steelers got five votes, the Patriots four, with one each for the Bengals, Chiefs and Colts.

Three of their writers each had the Patriots, Cardinals and Packers winning the Super Bowl.

Most of what was written was fairly predictable and understandable, except for this, from SI’s Eric Single, who was the only one I can find who really and truly believed that 2016 would be the year of Andrew Luck. And he stayed true to this for most of the season, even predicting the Colts would win the division after their December thrashing of the Jets put them in a three-way tie for the lead at 6-6.

It didn’t work out.

Again, nothing world-changing here, just interesting looking back at what everybody said last year, and something to look back on when they come out with these very same predictions next year.