Are the Patriots Only Successful Because They Play in a Weak Division?

Tom Brady has the easiest route… put his ass in our division and see what he does!!! #salty!!

— Earl Thomas (@Earl_Thomas) January 15, 2017

This isn’t a new argument, you see it in the countless comments sections. It always goes something along the lines of “they’re only good because they play in a weak division.” It does have a few variations, but all are along the same lines.

But like the stupid Tuck Rule attack , it’s time to put this one to rest.

Forgive Me for Doubting (Earl) Thomas

A quick check of the 2016 NFL standings would show him that every single team in the AFC East finished with a better record than their NFC West counterparts, and it’s not that close. The Patriots were 3.5 games better than the Seahawks (the only team in that division to top the .500 mark). The Dolphins were 2.5 games better than the Cardinals; the Bills were three games better than the Rams, and the lowly Jets were three games ahead of the pathetic 49ers. So Thomas is clearly a hammerhead.

2017 NFL Standings

Comparing the Patriots Dynasty to the 49ers Dynasty

The only other dynasty that really compares to the Patriots dynasty is that of the 80s/90s 49ers. Over the course of well over 15 years, both teams dominated the NFL. The Patriots had a slightly higher winning percentage, and likewise, the AFC East has a higher winning percentage. So when you compare the Patriots to the previous most dominant dynasty of the Super Bowl era, they come out on top.

So are the Patriots Much Better In the Division than out of it?

Looking at these numbers, we can see that the Patriots have the best record in their division since 2001, by a wide margin. This would make the weak division argument feasibly plausible. They’re clearly dominating the AFC East. But that’s not enough for the argument, which claims that they’re only good because of their division, and would struggle in any other division. As you can see, the Colts and Packers are in the ballpark for division dominance over the period, with the Steelers not far behind.

So, let’s see how the Patriots are in games outside their division.

As you can see, they have the best record in such games by an amazing 21.5 games. Again, if the Patriots were only successful because they play in a weak division, they should be a mediocre team outside their division.

You can see that the Patriots are 17 percentage points better in their division than they are out of it. But the Colts are 106 points better in their division. The Packers are 120 points better in their division.

But here’s the best one. The Seattle Seahawks are 73 points better in the NFC West than they are outside of it.

So at this point, I’m going to call this case closed. The claim of Thomas and others is pure fiction. The Patriots are excellent in their division, and excellent outside of it.

What About Against Good Teams?

Here’s the record for NFL teams against teams who finished the season with winning records over the past 16 seasons.As you can see, the Patriots have a .600 record against teams with winning records. Only one other team even has a .500 record against such teams. Thomas’s Seahawks, in case you have a .358 record in such games. Of course, the Seahawks once won a pathetically weak NFC West with a 7-9 record.

But what about against teams that made the playoffs… the margin is even bigger.

The Patriots make AFC East look like a Weak Division

So where does this idea come from, that the Patriots are only good because of their division.

Well, when you win your division every year, it does seem superficially plausible. But when you’re as good as the Patriots are, you’re going to make other teams look bad. When you’re starting out every season 0-2, as their AFC rivals usually are, you need to be that much better than everybody else to compete for a wild card.

The 2003 Dolphins finished 10-6, and missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker to the Broncos, in large part to going 0-2 against the Patriots (including the 12-0 snow fireworks game.)

In 2004, the Jets made the playoffs. But the 9-7 Buffalo Bills missed out on getting in by a game, because they went 0-2 against New England.

The 2011 Jets finished 8-8, and a game behind the 9-7 Bengals. Again, going 0-2 against the Patriots kept them out.

But more than that, the inability to win the division has led to much more turnover in the division. 9-7 teams become 7-9 teams, and 7-9 teams fire their coaches. With the hiring of Sean McDermott, there will now have been 23 coaches among the Pats three rivals since Bill Belichick took over in Foxboro. Continuity is important in the NFL, and the Patriots success has prevented the Bills, Dolphins and Jets from gaining that.

Elevator Speech

So here’s your quick rebuttal. Since 2001, the Patriots are just as good in their division as out of it – they’re dominant in both. They’re the only team with a winning record against playoff teams – and they’re over .600. It’s not that the rest of the AFC East isn’t good, it’s that the Patriots are the most dominant team in NFL history.

It’s not that they have the easiest route, it’s that they make that route look easy. And you’ll never hear them complain about it, like Earl Thomas.

Period.

Photo by Andrew Choy